Ethiopia, crisis of a Marxist economy

The great famine of 1984-1985 in Ethiopia was more a symptom than a cause of the deep crisis into which the country's economy fell as a result of a decade of civil war and "socialist transformation" by the dogmatically Marxist, Soviet-backed Derg, or Provisional Military Administrative Council (PMAC). Drought was only a contributing factor, not the prime cause of the famine. Kenya, which experienced a much more severe drought than Ethiopia over most of its agriculturally productive territory in 1984-1985, was able with timely government action to avert famine entirely. Massive Western emergency relief operations alleviated the Ethiopian famine. Communist countries gave minimal aid. The USSR provided almost no emergency food assistance, confining its efforts to the support of the Derg's counterinsurgency operations and transport for its controversial resettlement campaign. Soviet leaders have subsequently attempted to camouflage their parsimony and pretend that Ethiopia's food problems were exclusively the result of drought. A report prepared by the USSR State Planning Commission (GOSPLAN) Advisory Group in the Ethiopian Central Planning Commission provides an honest and uninhibited Soviet evaluation of the famine crisis. The report, Consideration of the Economic Policy of Ethiopia for the Next Few Years, was completed on August 14, 1985, and formally presented to the Ethiopian government in September 1985. Though not intended for public circulation, the 126-page double-spaced English-language text bears no security classification. During subsequent months, it was passed unofficially by Ethiopian officials to both Ethiopian and foreign economists and development specialists. This RAND report analyzes the Soviet critique and recommendations. An annex reproduces the GOSPLAN text with slight editing to improve its readability.